Last Friday, Mashable published an article based on a Pew Research report. The report itself suggests that 67% of experts believe Millennials – also know as Generation Y and Gen-Y – will continue to share information through social networking as they age through the year 2020. And although I agree with the experts to an extent, I can’t help but dig deeper and challenge the experts on both sides of the argument.
Breaking Down The Millennials
What I really have to challenge here is our understanding of the Millennials. Defining an entire generation by a series of characteristics was far simpler before than it is now. The time in which the Millennials grew up with is the most fluid, transforming and continually changing period in history. At a population larger than the Baby Boomers, the Millennials are fascinating because every few years their is some powerful and impacting sense of change.
This got me thinking. It got me thinking that Millennials in fact can be broken down into sub generations. The breakdown itself represents a transition that is occurring within the generation. It’s a transition from sharing to connecting. Although both actions are often combined in understanding, it would be a mistake not to understand that the lines are extremely blurred here.
When attempting to define something, there’s no better place to start than with a dictionary. Merriam-Webster’s Online Dictionary defines to “share” as the following:
Share (verb) – To partake of, use, experience, occupy, or enjoy with others; to have in common; to tell (as thoughts, feelings, or experience) to others.
And defines to “connect” as:
Connect (verb) – to join or fasten together usually by something intervening; to place or establish a relationship.
There is a distinct difference between the two, especially in the way it has been applied to everything “social”. Though the creators of social-platforms might have had a different understanding, Millennials grew into a social world where we understood its use to be the result of relationships we’ve already built and have, even by the smallest degree. We were already connected before the fact. We are now simply building on those connections.
Most of what we’ve been accustomed to with social networking – which often referred to as social media – is the notion of building on existing relationships. A clear majority of the people that became our “friends” on Facebook were people we already knew and met in one way for another. We were just extending ourselves by sharing to people we already knew. It wasn’t a matter of connecting. It was a matter of sharing.
Social Media and Networking Fatigue
What’s intriguing here is that any one person will only share so much. Not only do you start to care-less about constantly sharing, it loses it appeal and people start to care-less about what you have to share. It seems to be an emerging trend with the younger half of Millennials, and it’s starting with those aged 13-17. These teens are experiencing Facebook “fatigue”, with one in five teens no longer visiting the website or using it less. Equally, of the 78% who created an account only 69% still use it.
The Facebook teen abandon rate is at 9%. While two-thirds of teens report decreased use in the last 6 months and of those, almost half, 45% say the reason for decreased use is based on “lost interest” or quite simple, that “it’s boring”. Other social networks are experiencing much higher abandonment rates. 41% of teens are still using their MySpace profile but 22% have turned away from it. While others like YouTube have a 64% user rate and Twitter stands at 20%. However, they’re both experiencing 15% abandonment. Why are young Millennials turning away from social media in numbers?
The so-called “fatigue” experienced here is the lost value in what social networking has meant to the first half of Millennials, which is something that is completely different to the latter half. I also think there is one characteristic that is often overlooked when discussing social networking. And it’s something that I believe has a profound effect to why the first half of Millennials ran with all things “social”. But it’s something that has the second half of Millennials heading into a different direction.
Our Changing Social-Self
This change of direction is highly attributed to the use, availability and extended unlimited-plans that mobile phone users now have as opposed to what they were 10 years ago. As of September 2009 83% of 17 year-olds owned a mobile phone. Equally, 71% of 17 year-olds were found to talk daily on their mobile phones. Along with 83% of 13-17 year-olds who used text messaging.
The big discrepancy here is that the first half of Millennials weren’t that big on having existing relationships through the mobile phone environment. It wasn’t an option. The mobile world didn’t exist at any affordable rate then. It was far cheaper and less expensive to keep these existing relationships over ICQ. Then MSN. Then Friendster, MySpace and ultimately Facebook. If we were to use Strauss and Howe’s generational terminology, Gen-Y starts in 1982 and ends 2001. ICQ started in 1996 and Facebook in 2004. That puts the oldest of Gen-Y at 14 years in 1996 and 22 years in 2004. Keep these dates in mind for later.
The question now is to find the years where these Transitional Millennials are born. Based on the mobile phone ages above and those experiencing extensive “fatigue”, it would look like there is a generational breaking point with those born somewhere in the early years of the 1990s. The same demographic in which we see 12-17 year-olds spending the second least amount of time online at 11 and a half hours per month in comparison to those aged 25-34 that spend 31 hours and 37 minutes on average, with time online only increasing by age. The 11 and under age group have the lowest user rates.
Now lets take a look at some interesting and random user stats:
- Average user: Facebook – 38 years-old. Twitter – 39 years-old. 64% of Twitter and 61% of Facebook user’s are 35 years or older.
- ICQ – first popular instant messaging platform. 80% of its users being between the ages of 13-29 – or those born between 1981 and 1997.
- 12-17 year-olds have increased mobile phone ownership rates by 19%-33% over the years of 2004-2008. While texting has increased 566% between 2007-2009.
- Of those aged between 18 to those 65 and over, the 18-29 age group represent the highest percentage at 44% in taking steps to limit online information in 2009.
- Teen activities on social networking sites between 2006-2009: Sending group messages has declined 11%. Posting comments to a friend’s blog has declined 24%. And sending private messages has declined 16%.
Conclusion… Emergence of Transitional Millennials
Now after exposing the information above, I have to re-examine why 67% experts believe the following:
By 2020, members of Generation Y (today’s ‘digital natives’) will continue to be ambient broadcasters who disclose a great deal of personal information in order to stay connected and take advantage of social, economic, and political opportunities. Even as they mature, have families, and take on more significant responsibilities, their enthusiasm for widespread information sharing will carry forward.
I, in fact, don’t even think it’s a matter of “sharing” for all the “members of Generation Y”. Sharing seems to be an aspect of those born between 1982 and the magical year of 1992. Based on the numbers and years above, 1992 appears to be the year where those born then and after don’t share as much as they will connect and stayed connected. For Millennials born between 1992 and 2001, sharing will take a backseat to connecting, being connected and always being in a constant state of connection.
Like I stated at the beginning, I agree with the experts to the extent that we will stay connected. But we will not be focused on being “ambient broadcasters” with an “enthusiasm for widespread information sharing”. As mobile phones and the emerging use of smart phones continue to increase, I wouldn’t be shocked to see further social networking “fatigue” and increased numbers in abandonment rates. A percentage of this will be through natural attrition and loss of the customer. But with such a large number of online users, which still has impressive by any means, a small percentage swing can literally mean millions of users. Those that are non-users will simply be absorbed into some other form of connecting element.
Further, as younger individuals are the ones that actually care most about their online privacy, use the internet the least, represent a minority of Facebook and Twitter users and are declining in certain social activities, the later half of of Millennials will in fact look at social networking and react to it differently. These Millennials will use texting, apps, BBM and mobile/smart phone abilities to curb what the first half of Millennials could only accomplish in the online world.
The second half of these Millennials, which I’m dubbing the Transitional Millennials, will be connecting to each other in the classroom, the car and anywhere else where they have the opportunity to use their mobile abilities. Sharing will happen through the virtue of connecting. And unless social networking sites reinvent themselves, these Transitional Millennials won’t in fact need to rely on an online sharing presence. They will be connected to everyone that they perceive as important at a younger age. And grow with those connections over time. Telling everyone the same old thing is starting to get boring. At least when we BBM, text or call someone we get some kind of response.







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